Brexit, why must you be such a drag?

'Brexit was a fantastic example of a nation shooting itself full in the face.'- Hugh Grant, in an interview on Watch What Happens Live with Andy Cohen, 11 August 2016

Good question

David Cameron steps up to the podium, his shiny forehead glistened with nervous sweat. What he is about to propose is a gamble; one that could tear the United Kingdom asunder. It's 23 January 2013, and Prime Minister David Cameron announces how a victory for the Conservatives in the 2015 General Election would mean that a referendum on the country's membership in the European Union would take place. A daunting prospect for the British electorate, for a Conservative triumph would mean that they would have to pay attention to politics for a while longer in order to keep up to date with all this nonsense over the EU.

Dawn breaks on Friday 24 June 2016. The results are in, and 'Leave' has won with 52% of the vote. Prominent Brexiteers such as UKIP leader Nigel Farage and soon to be Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs Boris Johnson rejoice in Britain giving Europe the middle finger. Dave had lost, stepping down from his role as master of the government and handing the reins of power over to his Home Secretary Theresa May. By 29 March 2017, she had triggered Article 50 and had started the two year timer of leaving the EU. Brexit had now well and truly begun. Nobody knew what had just been unleashed.

She's tired of all this Brexit nonsense 

In the same year, the Conservatives had lost their majority after the snap General Election in June and May faced threats from all sides. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour party were gaining momentum, and rebel Tory MPs demanded a final vote on the Brexit deal. No one was playing ball as the deadly dance of politics was in full swing, with the likes of Johnson being a stick in the mud over whatever step was taken. He resigned his Cabinet position on 9 July 2018, a day after Brexit Secretary David Davis resigned due to a lack of belief in May's 'Brexit plan. Disaster had struck Theresa May, just as negotiations with the EU were beginning to step up. As the country revelled in glorious sunshine and 'It's Coming Home' memes (soon to be a vital primary source for historians), the government faced total collapse.

Hopefully, this brief and basic history of Brexit sets the tone for this post i.e. Brexit is a complicated mess and has been dragging in for quite a while now. Brexit's continued presence has been mentioned before, but with more developments occurring it would be fitting to return to the subject. Theresa May's Chequers plan (the one that caused Davis and Johnson to resign in July) has been declared by the PM herself that this is the only way forward. Either everyone gets behind the proposals or there will be no deal. It's like when your Dad threatens to turn the car around because you and your sibling are having an argument over juvenile matters. Although, a reversal on Brexit would be one welcomed by the British public, so maybe we should keep on pestering...

Iconic

Theresa's plan covers crucial areas on the whole Brexit agenda, setting out the criteria for a smooth(ish) divorce from the EU. The proposal, at only three pages long, mentions:

• 'Continued harmonisation' with EU laws, although Parliament could diverge away from them
• A 'joint institutional' framework to interpret agreements between the UK and the EU
• Domestic tariffs and trade policies imposed on goods intended for the UK, and EU tariffs for goods heading onto the continent. This means that the UK can control trade without any border disruptions, especially with the Republic of Ireland over the issue of a 'hard border' (increased control and security) 
• The end of free movement to control immigration, although there would be 'mobility framework' to allow British and EU citizens to travel between the two states

Good, glad there is some sort of progress. Problem is, as has been mentioned before, not everyone is on board. Some are desperate to keep the UK in the single market (free movement of goods, services and people with no tariffs or quotas) and the customs union (no trade tariffs between member states), in order to avoid economic hardships and mountains of paperwork. It's not lazy, we are just tactically cutting corners.

That's the British way 

Theresa may have got her act together and penned a potential deal, but that doesn't distract attention away from the painful reality that Brexit is, and has been, a llloooonnnngggg process. This is the first time that Article 50 (the process of leaving the EU) has been triggered since it was signed as part of the Treaty of Lisbon in 2009. Basically, we are guinea pigs in seeing how the whole procedure works, so it was never going to be smooth sailing. Besides, making the process as complicated and draining as possible would deter other Eurosceptic nations from leaving the European Union. For Brussels, the fractured nature of the British government has worked perfectly in showing the other member states how bad leaving the EU is. Jean-Claude Juncker, you cunning bastard.

Please Mr. Juncker, give us some slack 

Economic issues are critical in the whole negotiation process, especially with the single market and customs union involved. Leaving the EU means the UK are subject to those pesky tariffs on goods entering from outside the customs union. Furthermore, leaving the single market means the end to the free movement of people and goods between the UK and the EU. In 2017, around 44% of UK good and services went to other EU members, with 53% of imports coming from our European counterparts. You don't need to be an economist to see how integral trade with the European Union is, creating this idea and argument that Britain needs to have some sort of access to both the customs union and the single market. But this is Brexit- nothing is simple.

It's been made clear by the EU side of the negotiating table that the UK can't just simply pick what it wants as if the whole thing was a Pick 'n Mix. The power is in their hands as they are the ones running the whole show, which seems pretty counter-productive to the Brexiteer argument that leaving the EU would mean that Britain would be 'independent' from the evils of a European community. The hopes of having a 'soft Brexit', in that many ties are kept with the EU, hinge on successfully negotiating a special deal over these two critical points. Yet a failure over the issue of trade with the EU potentially opens up potential for global trade. Then again, that means having to talk with HIM if the United States are willing to abandon their trade war.

The man is a walking meme 

Indeed, a dramatic exit from the single market opens up that horrible question of immigration, a matter that divided many back in the referendum days of 2016. Some felt threatened over the influx of other nationalities into the country, meaning that they flocked to the idea of leaving the EU to preserve their idea of keeping Britain 'pure'. Unfortunately, this means no more spontaneous trips over to the continent as visas are likely to be needed for a 'cultural' weekend in Amsterdam. To please both sides, i.e. those that want immigration curbed and those that want to travel into Europe, further frustrates the negotiation process. Theresa's 'mobility framework' sounds wonderful and all, but once again the ball lies with Juncker in his office in Brussels. Britain isn't in a strong position to demand whatever it wants.

Those cultural trips are in danger 

The possibility of reaching an agreement similar to one which Norway has with the EU is still feasible. On 8 May 2018, the House of Lords voted for an amendment to the government's Brexit bill in order for the government to negotiate for a 'Norway model'. Norway is not a member of the EU, and is instead part of The European Free Trade Association (EFTA) alongside Iceland, Liechtenstein and Switzerland. Norway also remains part of the European Economic Area (EEA), meaning that they are participants in the single market and can enjoy the benefits of free movement. What's more, EFTA has multiple free trade agreements with numerous states outside of Europe, so UK membership in EFTA would allow the UK to be part of this lovely bit of trade.

This all sounds brilliant, yet Norway is subject to some EU laws in order to have access to the single market. Indeed, breaking free of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) was one aim of the Brexiteers, so aligning with EFTA would mean adhering to the EFTA Court, raising fears of swapping one set of foreign judges for another. Moreover, those blasted payments to the EU (the UK paid £13.1 billion in 2016) would actually continue if the UK joined EFTA, since being part of the EEA means committing to solving the social and economic disparity within Europe. Norway, through the system of 'Norway Grants', will pay EUR 179.1 million annually between 2014-2021, all for the good of bringing equality to Europe. Oh, and staying in the single market doesn't resolve the whole immigration affair. Man, we really are in a bit of a pickle, aren't we?

Well said, Argus 

The talks between Canada and the EU when negotiating the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) show how long-winded a deal with the EU can take. It took seven years before a deal was agreed in August 2014, with Canadian PM Justin Trudeau signing CETA in October 2016. Even then, all member states have to sign the deal, so it's only in partial affect at the moment. Brexit is, and was never going to be, a walk in the park; factors in the UK and on the continent sure made sure of that. The cracks in Conservative leadership grow ever the wider day by day, with Brexit enlarging this division with a crowbar. European bureaucracy makes the negotiation process far slower, and quite frankly nobody can agree on everything. Two steps forward and two steps back.

EU leaders flocked to Salzburg on 19 and 20 September in a meeting that covered topics such as migration, internal security and, of course, Brexit. The EU's chief negotiator Michel Barnier has said that a Brexit deal could be 'possible' by November, especially with Barnier recently saying how the EU would be 'ready to improve' it's position over the issue of the Irish border in the wake of the UK's exit from the EU. However, it has all come crumbling down, with President of the European Council Donald Tusk saying that May's propositions 'will not work'. A kick in the balls for sure, yet Theresa is still calling for respect from other EU leaders. Theresa has thrown down the gauntlet to all that dare to speak of their discrepancies against her, from all-powerful European politicians to that devious former Mayor of London.

'Bitch, you ain't getting in here'

The Prime Minister is trying to show the nerve needed to lead such a fractured party, yet it may be too late. Her leadership still remains up in the air, and Brexit may be the reason for yet another resignation from a Prime Minister. The fears over a 'no deal' Brexit could spurn everyone to get their act together in amongst a statement from the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) managing director Christine Lagarde. She stated how a failure to strike up a deal would bring 'substantial costs' for the UK economy, citing examples such as reduced growth, an increase in the budget deficit and a fall in the value of sterling. Again, you don't have to be an economist to figure out that all of that sounds bad, and you would be right. A shrinking UK economy would bring about a small bout of chaos- but at least we have our 'independence'.

Numerous questions remain that will be solved in the coming months, but these months will drag on like a double period of Chemistry on a Monday morning. Popular opinion appears to be shifting towards the camp of holding a second referendum, one that Mayor of London Sadiq Khan has expressed recently, so that whole ordeal needs to be addressed soon. Other important questions include:

• Is a 'Norway model' possible, and is that better than any deal us Brits can scramble together?
• Can a 'hard border' with the Republic of Ireland be avoided?
• Will there be a 'soft' or 'hard' Brexit?
• What is the likelihood of Theresa May being removed from power, sentenced to a public guillotining in Trafalgar Square and Boris Johnson beginning a Maximilien Robespierre-style Reign of Terror?

All of these, especially the last one, are really important.

Revolutionary in thoughts and fashion

In the mean time, the most productive thing any of us can do is sit around and patiently wait to see if our leaders in Parliament can sort out this Brexit mess and get a deal in front of Donald Tusk, Juncker and the other EU players. The clock is ticking down steadily to 29 March 2019, a day that will see the UK give one last wave to the European Union and step out into the wilderness. How prepared we are for this potentially hazardous trip will be determined from now until that fateful day. Let's just try and avoid any sneaky political drama, shall we?

It's all very tiring 

Ben G 😁 xo

P.S. By the time we leave the EU, I will be undertaking yet another crazy walking challenge, as I do battle with the Isle of Wight Challenge. It's all for charity (in this case, Mind) and you can read some thoughts on mental health right here. Better still, my JustGiving page is now up and running, so click right here and donate whatever amount you see fit. All donations would mean the world to me. 

Don't forget your 5 a day